So close we can taste it

The latest poll puts the Liberals just 15 points ahead of the Conservatives - the closest margin in recent memory:

On Jan. 15, the last time Ipsos-Reid conducted a survey for CTV and The Globe and Mail newspaper, the Liberals enjoyed the support of an estimated 48 per cent of Canadians.

In a poll released Friday - three days after Auditor General Sheila Fraser released a damning report on spending abuses in a now-terminated federal sponsorship program in Quebec - the Liberals fell nine percentage points nationally to 39 per cent.

It is one of the most sudden plunges ever experienced by a government outside of an election.

"This is an issue Canadians are paying attention to. They're making judgments about this government and they're basically finding it wanting in a very short period of time," said Darrell Bricker, president of Ipsos-Reid.
[...]
To form a majority government in a Canadian general election, a party needs about a 40 per cent share of the popular vote.

The Conservative Party rose five percentage points to 24 per cent, while the NDP gained two percentage points, rising to 18 per cent support.

The Bloc Quebecois and the Green Party didn't really change.

Barring another major scandal, or a major Liberal misstep like making a campaign ad poking fun at the Conservative leader's face, the Liberals are almost certain to win the next election. But it may not be a majority government - and that, my friends, would be almost unbearably exciting.

Posted by damian at February 14, 2004 10:57 AM