Dead Heat

The Globe and Mail says the Liberals are a statistically meaningless one point ahead of the Conservatives nationally - and, more astonishingly, the Conservatives are actually ahead in Ontario:

With 31-per-cent support of decided voters, Stephen Harper's Tories are now 1 point behind the Liberals, which fell to 32 per cent, according to Ipsos-Reid. The poll was conducted for The Globe and Mail and CTV News as the campaign reaches the end of week two.

Nationally, the Liberals have fallen 2 points while the Tories have risen 1 point since the last Ipsos-Reid poll released last weekend. The NDP rose 1 point to 17 per cent.
[...]
In Ontario, the Conservative Party, with 35 per cent support, has topped the Liberals (32 per cent) for the first time since 1985. Seat projections give Conservatives between 46 and 50 seats while the Liberals could grab between 49 and 53. The Liberals took most of the province's 101 seats in 2000.

Andrew Coyne has more about the implications of this. (He's got embarassing photos of Warren Kinsella, too.)

Posted by damian at June 5, 2004 08:29 AM