Prediction time!

Barring anything really, really insane happening on the campaign trail today, I think I'm safe in putting my election predictions on record. Andrew Coyne has compiled a number of seat projections here. Nearly all major pollsters are predicting a Conservative minority government, and so am I.

A possible wild card: the weather. Western Newfoundland has been nailed by a major blizzard today, and if the weather stays like this tomorrow, a lot of people probably won't bother to vote. In that case, it would come down to which candidate has the best organization on the ground. That goes for the rest of Canada, too. (In Quebec, the Liberals have a much better infrastructure than the Conservatives, which is why I'm still picking them to hang on to more Quebec seats.)

Newfoundland and Labrador: Liberals 4, Conservatives 3
Nova Scotia: Conservatives 5, Liberals 3, NDP 3
PEI: Liberals 3, Conservatives 1
New Brunswick: Conservatives 6, Liberals 4
Quebec: Bloc 55, Liberals 15, Conservatives 5
Ontario: Liberals 50, Conservatives 46, NDP 10
Manitoba: Conservatives 8, Liberals 3, NDP 3
Saskatchewan: Conservatives 13, NDP 1
Alberta: Conservatives 28
BC: Conservatives 22, NDP 12, Liberals 2
Territories: Liberals 2, NDP 1

Total: Conservatives 137, Liberals 86, NDP 30, Bloc 55.

Posted by damian at January 22, 2006 02:33 PM | TrackBack