Cautious Change

Assuming no seats change hands through recounts, the final standings are Conservatives 124, Liberals 103, BQ 51, NDP 29, and one independent (Andre Arthur in Quebec).

To be honest, I'm a little disappointed - I expected 135-140 seats for the Tories - but under our first-past-the-post electoral system, you arguably couldn't have come up with a result that better reflects Canadians' wishes. The people wanted the Liberals out, but they still have some lingering doubts about Stephen Harper and the Conservatives, and this result ensures that the Tories will need the support of at least one left-leaning party to pass any legislation.

The most accurate seat projection came from electionprediction.org, which underestimated Conservative strength in Quebec but was nearly alone in predicting over 100 seats for the Liberals. There's a lesson here: you can play with the numbers all you want, but to accurately predict the results of a Canadian election, you have to look at the country riding by riding.

Posted by damian at January 24, 2006 07:44 AM | TrackBack