What next for Zimbabwe?

Con Coughlin says Mugabe could be gone next month, but that his successor might be no better:

When officials at South Africa's foreign ministry start whispering to visiting American businessmen - as they did earlier this week - that a coup in Harare is on the cards for some time in mid-April, there is every reason to believe that the wind of change is about to blow the cantankerous old devil out of his presidential palace.

The sudden change in Pretoria's attitude to Mugabe is just one of the many factors that have raised expectations throughout Africa that the dictator's 27-year rule of fear is finally drawing to a close.

But if Mugabe goes, will Zimbabwe's salvation inevitably follow?

[...]

Joice Mujuru, generally regarded as holding pole position in the succession stakes, is hardly a figure to inspire confidence.

A veteran of the guerrilla war that eventually brought ZANU-PF to power, she owes her political prominence to her husband Solomon, who for many years commanded Zimbabwe's armed forces, and therefore bears responsibility for many of the atrocities committed against the country's civilian population.

Solomon Mujuru, who acquired vast personal wealth while the rest of Zimbabwe starved, is credited with being instrumental in Mugabe's appointment following independence in 1980; but the country's dire economic situation has prompted even him to ditch his loyalty to his erstwhile protégé, and he has been wooing support from British, American and French diplomats.

When South African officials talk of a potential coup in Zimbabwe, Solomon Mujuru's name is never far from their lips.

For those desperate to see the back of Mugabe, the replacement of a political dictator with a military one might have its attractions, but this would completely fail to serve Zimbabwe's long-term interests.

What Zimbabwe needs is not more of the autocratic Marxist dogma that has brought the country to its knees; it needs to start again, just as it did after the 1980 Lancaster House agreement ended years of bloody civil war.

Damian P.

Update: publicly, at least, Zimbabwe's neighbours are showing "solidarity" with Mugabe's government:

In a communique issued at the end of the meeting, the 14 countries of the Southern African Development Community called for an end to all economic sanctions against Zimbabwe and expressed their solidarity with the government of Mr Mugabe.

They also took up one of Mr Mugabe's long-standing causes, calling on the British government to compensate white farmers whose land his government has seized.

However, they also acknowledged that Zimbabwe's political landscape needed to change. They appointed South African president Thabo Mbeki to promote dialogue between opposition and government figures.

Speaking after the two-day closed meeting, Jakaya Kikwete, the president of Tanzania, said there had been no suggestion of asking Mr Mugabe not to run in presidential elections scheduled for next year.

And he accused opposition groups of using illegal means to further their cause.

Posted by damian at March 30, 2007 07:33 AM