Swat's up?

The Islamists and their Taliban/al Qaeda friends, despite President Musharraf's state of emergency (all those lawyers and political opponents are in jail though). Not a good sign (good map with the article though):

Gen. Pervez Musharraf, the Pakistani president, says he instituted emergency rule for the extra powers it would give him to push back the militants who have carved out a mini-state in Pakistan’s tribal areas.

But in the last several days, the militants have extended their reach, capturing more territory in Pakistan’s settled areas and chasing away frightened policemen, local government officials said.

[...]

The success of the militants in Swat has caused new concern in Washington about the ability and the will of Pakistani forces to fight the militants who are now training their sights directly on Pakistan’s government, not only on the NATO and American forces across the border in Afghanistan, Western officials said.

After several weeks of heavy clashes, the militants largely control Swat, the mountainous region that is the scenic jewel of Pakistan, and are pushing into Shangla, to the east. All of the sites lie deeper inside Pakistan than the tribal areas, on the Afghan border, where Al Qaeda, the Taliban and assorted foreign and local militants have expanded a stronghold in recent years. In Alpuri, the administrative headquarters of Shangla, a crowd of militants easily took over the police station, despite the emergency decree, Mayor Ibad Khan said.

[...]

The local militants in Swat are led by Maulana Fazlullah, a charismatic Islamic cleric, and are fortified by Islamic fighters of Uzbek, Tajik and Chechen origin, residents say. They say that although masks hide the foreigners’ faces, it is clear that they do not speak Pashto, the local language.

Mr. Fazlullah leads the Movement for the Enforcement of Islamic Laws, a Taliban-style group that has forced the closing of schools for girls and shut down video stores...

Mark C.

Update: This is ominous (but thankfully maybe not so much for Afghanistan, see penultimate paragraph):

But from an Afghan point of view, the most disturbing news came in a two-part series this week by Asia Times correspondent Syed Saleem Shahzad datelined from the Nawa Pass overlooking the border [here and here--second link has "emirate" material].

Shahzad quoted a senior Taliban figure as saying a wide range of like-minded militant groups, including the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban and Al Qaeda, have agreed on a declaration of independence, with the goal of establishing an "Islamic emirate" that will eat into territory on both sides of the border.

Afghan political watchers are divided on the impact of such political propaganda, should militants follow through with the threat of declaring independence. Liwal, for one, regards it as a potentially grave development.

"I regard it as dangerous because when you look just below the border you see a vast tribal population that has lost its traditional leadership," said Liwal. "Before the Talibanization of this region the local jirgas of tribal elders held sway and the mullahs were second rank, with no say in policy. Now the mullahs and the madrassas make the policy, especially in Waziristan and the eastern tribal areas.

"In a way, I think the danger is worse for Pakistan. Because the Afghans are not so easily fooled. When the Taliban says, `We will make a nice caliphate. No more cutting off people's heads. You can even play music if you want,' the Afghan people can see through this miserable lie because we already suffered through it once before.

"But beyond the Pakistani border, it could be worse. The millions of people without traditional leadership can be very easily used."..

Upperdate: About time:

With the Pakistani government in turmoil, senior Pentagon officials are quietly moving to overhaul the system of massive U.S. military aid to the country by more directly tying the payments to Islamabad's success in combating Islamic militants...

What with the big worry:

Over the past six years, the Bush administration has spent almost $100 million on a highly classified program to help Gen. Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan’s president, secure his country’s nuclear weapons, according to current and former senior administration officials...

Posted by markc at November 17, 2007 11:41 AM