"Revolution" in Iowa

E.J. Dionne, Jr. uses the R-word to describe the results for both major parties in the Iowa caucuses:

Mike Huckabee's decisive victory over Mitt Romney in the Iowa caucuses last night marks a revolution in Republican politics. An outspent outsider triumphed over a former governor who played an inside game. Huckabee's victory is also the revenge of evangelical Christians who had been taken for granted by the GOP establishment and decided to vote for one of their own, a Baptist minister turned politician.

Change, particularly generational change, was also at the heart of Barack Obama's victory over Hillary Rodham Clinton and John Edwards. Young voters and independents flocked to the Illinois senator. Media entrance polls showed that Obama defeated Clinton by better than 5 to 1 among voters under age 30, and such voters made up almost as large a share of the caucus electorate as voters over 65, a strongly pro-Clinton group. Among independents, Obama beat Clinton by better than 2 to 1.

[...]

Tuesday's New Hampshire primary will have a much larger turnout, and independents -- roughly 40 percent of the potential electorate -- will play a far greater role than they did in Iowa. Until recently, it appeared that independents, who are on the whole alienated from President Bush and his party, would vote in large numbers in this state's Democratic primary, as they did in the Iowa caucuses. This would benefit Obama. In a recent Franklin Pierce University-WBZ poll that gave Clinton a narrow lead here, Obama was drawing 46 percent of his support from independents, while Clinton drew 33 percent of her backing from voters who did not declare a party affiliation. By coming into New Hampshire strong, Obama may keep independents on the Democratic side. This could hurt McCain, who leans far more heavily on independents than Romney does. But Romney's defeat in Iowa may obviate McCain's need for independents.

One caucus does not a realignment make. But Democrats, particularly Obama, are fighting for the middle ground and the independents, while Republicans are largely talking to each other. Thus will Democrats have far less adjusting to do when the general election battle is finally joined.

Dionne says McCain is the only GOP candidate with any kind of appeal outside the party. What I find really striking about Obama is no one really seems to hate him with any real passion. Republicans and Clintonites criticize him for inexperience, the more rabid netroots don't think he's sufficiently partisan, and of course, the ridiculous "is he really a Muslim?" argument sometimes rears its ugly head - but the arguments against Obama aren't being made with nearly the amount of venom directed against the likes of Clinton, McCain, Giuliani and Huckabee.

(Speaking of Giuliani: 3% in Iowa? Just over one-third as many votes as Ron Paul? I know the Mayor didn't really campaign in that state, but for someone with his profile, that shouldn't matter. He's done.)

As for Huckabee, I think he'll hit a brick wall in New Hampshire. After Romney's disappointing showing last night, McCain should win that state with little difficulty - and if Republicans actually want to win this year's election, they should grit their teeth and support him, because he's the only one who can potentially beat Obama in a general election.

Huckabee vs. Obama? I'll take the Senator from Illinois, and I bet many conservatives - even registered Republicans - feel the same way.

Damian P.

Update: James Joyner has a good analysis of the Iowa results. He still thinks the Democratic nomination is Hillary's to lose.

Update II: Jim Geraghty's roundup. He thinks Thompson is still alive, barely, and that Obama should brace himself for the mother of all negative campaigns from the Clinton side. Speaking of whom:

Hmm. At this hour, with 97 percent of the precincts reporting, 71 percent of Iowa Democratic caucusgoers voted against Hillary.

Wow, senator, you're really unlikeable.

Update III: Skippy (NSFW pics) weighs in:

Tonight Iowa proved that the impossible is possible. Tonight we learned that Hillary Clinton is more than capable of losing, and losing rather handily. A black guy from Chicago tore down the House of Clinton in one of the whitest, most rural places, not only in America, but in the motherf**king world, and he did it decisively.

Not only did Barack Obama kick Hillary's ass across the state, an insincere, faux hillbilly haircut like John Edwards did, too. It was a bad night to be Hillary Clinton, and I haven't seen her husband look that bad since his Grand Jury appearence of a decade ago.

[...]

Despite spending no money and even less time in Iowa, despite having the termerity to tell Iowans that America will never run its cars on f**king corn, John McCain came in fourth. He beat Giuliani, Captain 9/11 himself, by over three to one. Giuliani came closer in the raw vote to Alan Keyes than he did McCain.

McCain is now in a place where he doesn't have to beat Romney, although I think he will, to knock him out of the race, he just has to place a strong second. If Romney can't kick McCain's ass in a really convincing way in his own neighbouring state and an unbelieveable money advantage, he turns into Hillary with slightly more magical underpants. Romney lost to a nobody tonight by nine points. McCain is a national figure who most people have the upmost respect for. Let's see how Mitt does.

That makes the Republican race between McCain and Giuliani. Rudy's had a bad couple of months and his fundraising's taking a s**tkicking. Everything that had made Rudy Rudy over the last twenty years has come back to bite him on the ass. Giuliani also made the mistake of making his campaign about national security, stupidly thinking that he'd be facing a putz like Romney. National secutity is an issue that McCain was born to run on.

Posted by damian at January 4, 2008 08:19 AM