Mac is back; Rudy routed

John McCain takes Florida, while Giuliani finishes a distant third:

With a third of Florida's precincts reporting, the former New York Mayor, whom had banked all on victory in Florida, was in a fight for third place with Mike Huckabee. John McCain was on 34 per cent, and Mitt Romney on 32 per cent, in a desperately close battle for victory, with Mr Giuliani on 16 per cent.

Mr Giuliani predicted on Monday that the winner in Florida would go on to secure the Republican nomination and it is almost inconceivable that he will now press on. If he does quit, the big question is whether he will endorse John McCain. [CNN says he's in talks to do so. - DP]

Mr Giuliani decided to cede the early states to his rivals to try an unprecedented gamble to stake all on Florida. It was a strategy that failed spectacularly.

He is expected to bow out of the contest before New York, his home state, votes next week as part of the 22-state "Super Tuesday" contest. He faces the prospect of losing to Mr McCain there, a humiliation that would further damage his standing.

If he does drop out, the main beneficiary will be Mr McCain. Both men enjoy support from independents, moderates and national security hawks and gaining Mr Giuliani's base could significantly boost Mr McCain's chances in New York, California and New Jersey, three of the biggest prizes on Super Tuesday.

Updated results here. A lot of Republicans don't like McCain, though I think they'll come around if the alternative is another Clinton presidency. But he's the only GOP candidate who can pick up some independent support, and therefore the only one with a shot at winning the whole thing.

As for Giuliani, his astonishing collapse will be analyzed and debated in political science classes for years to come. At least he beat Ron Paul this time.

Damian P.

Update: MSNBC says Rudy will endorse McCain tomorrow. (Via Hot Air) It's over, Mitt.

Posted by damian at January 29, 2008 10:51 PM