Kosovo(a?): Putting our government in a pickle

UDI: talk about a tricky one. And perhaps soon another excuse for certain NATO members not to do much in Afghanistan. They may soon have to do more in Kosovo:

[...]

In a strongly worded essay recently published in the Washington Times, former U.S. Secretary of State Lawrence Eagleburger, former Assistant Defense Secretary Peter Rodman and former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton expressed grave concern about the haste of the current Bush foreign policy team in encouraging Kosovo to declare unilateral independence. Their storm warning -- that such a declaration could cause violence in the province and lead to a crisis with Russia -- is worth heeding.

[...]

It is a dangerous precedent to tear apart the territory of a member state of the United Nations. And the timing could not be worse. No one needs a Kosovo crisis, while NATO remains short of troops in Afghanistan and maintains 16,000 troops in this autonomous province of Serbia. A Kosovo blowup would provide an easy excuse for gun-shy European allies to reduce their Afghanistan contingents.

[...]

Kosovo's proclamation of independence would destabilize America's other friends in the Balkans. Bosnia will face a new attempt by the self-styled "Serbian republic" to leave the Dayton structure. Macedonia's restive ethnic Albanian minority may again ask why it is stuck in a state with Orthodox Slavs...

Moreover the legality of a Kosovar declaration of independence without UN Security Council authorization is rather dubious. After all, still operative Council Resolution 1244 of June 10, 1999 reads:

The Security Council,

[...]

Reaffirming the commitment of all Member States to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia [emphasis added] and the other States of the region, as set out in the Helsinki Final Act and annex 2...

10. Authorizes the Secretary-General, with the assistance of relevant international organizations, to establish an international civil presence in Kosovo in order to provide an interim administration for Kosovo under which the people of Kosovo can enjoy substantial autonomy within the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia [emphasis added], and which will provide transitional administration while establishing and overseeing the development of provisional democratic self-governing institutions to ensure conditions for a peaceful and normal life for all inhabitants of Kosovo...

Annex 2

Agreement should be reached on the following principles to move towards a resolution of the Kosovo crisis:

[...]

5. Establishment of an interim administration for Kosovo as a part of the international civil presence under which the people of Kosovo can enjoy substantial autonomy within the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia [emphasis added], to be decided by the Security Council of the United Nations...

8. A political process towards the establishment of an interim political framework agreement providing for substantial self-government for Kosovo, taking full account of the Rambouillet accords and the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia [emphasis added] and the other countries of the region...

Related:

Joy in Kosovo, Anger in Serbia

UN Security Council Meets on Kosovo

Questions remain over EU's role

UK's last 1,000 soldiers rushed out to Balkans

Ex-Soviet separatist regions take heart from Kosovo

Kosova

There's a lot of hypocrisy here amongst those Europeans and Canadians who required a UN Security Council mandate for the Iraq war, but who now support UDI by Kosovo--a territory until now managed under a UNSC mandate--without the requisite UNSC authorization. I see no overwhelmingly important reasons of national interest on any country's part to justify support for, and recognition of, UDI at this time. Most just feel sheer boredom with the continuation of the problem combined with some sort of remnant well-intentioned, warm and fuzzy, Wilsonian support for self-determination. But if for the Kosovars, what about the...Kurds spring to mind along with Kashmiris and Pathans. But we don't want to go there, do we?

Moreover, support for the independence of Muslim Kosovars will gain the West zero credit with Islamists and probably little with moderate Muslims. After all the freeing of the Kosovars from the Serbian yoke by NATO's aerial bombing campaign in 1999 (also without UNSC approval and in which the Canadian Air Force participated) didn't seem to win many Muslim friends, did it?

Where this will all end knows only God.

Mark C.

Recognition update: As of 1430 Eastern Time, Feb. 18, EU badly divided:

For: US, UK, France, Germany, Italy ('"intention to recognise Kosovo in the special form" that indicates it as "independent country under the sovereignty of the international community"'), Australia.

Against: Russia, China (lots of minorities), Spain (Basque, Catalan minorities), Cyprus (Turkish minority), Romania (Hungarian minority), Bulgaria, Slovakia (Hungarian minority), Greece, Azerbaijan (Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh), Sri Lanka (Tamils).

Still considering: Canada (Parti Québécois favourable).

Some German press skepticism:

Kosovo's Independence 'Is a Further Step on a Dangerous Path'

Posted by markc at February 18, 2008 09:33 AM