Dion punts

The Globe and Mail describes the new federal budget as "parsimonious," but the Liberals won't vote against it:

Despite the budget's lack of significant tax or spending measures, Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion immediately announced his 94-member caucus won't trigger an election by voting against it.

The budget is the smallest in 11 years – since Ottawa balanced its books – and represents a deliberate decision by the Tories to restrain spending rather than break open the kitty to meet a cacophony of demands for help as Canada's economy slows.

For example, the Tories could have spent a budget surplus that's swelled to $10.2-billion for the fiscal year ending March 31, but instead announced they'll use all of it to pay down federal debt.

To a large extent, the Tories are cash-starved by design: Last fall they used up most of the surplus on $14.7-billion of annual tax cuts. It was a move designed to deny opposition parties fiscal room with which to plan campaign promises for a possible 2008 election.

[...]

In this new cash-constrained environment, spending rises only 3.4 per cent next year, a dramatic shift after the first two years of Tory budgets expanded federal program spending by 14.8 per cent.

But even as they plead penury, the Tories loaded what they bet was enough spending in the budget that they could run an election on it if necessary.

The budget sprinkles cash across a range of groups from seniors to students, infrastructure-starved cities, police and veterans – spending designed to inoculate the Tories from public criticism that they did nothing as economic turbulence hit Canada.

Tory strategists are betting this fiscally prudent middle path will strengthen their appeal to what they call “Conservative-Liberal vote switcher” electors – particularly those in suburbs around Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver, where the Conservatives want to gain seats.

These voters are fiscally conservative and cherish a tough no-deficit policy in Ottawa, strategists say, but they also want to see the government make incremental progress rather than “big splashy” efforts on other spending priorities.

According to Jane Taber, Stephane Dion (and Michael Ignatieff) wanted to trigger an election, but the leader was overruled by his followers:

Stéphane Dion followed the script developed by his senior caucus leadership as he announced yesterday that there wasn't enough in the Harper budget to justify an election.

The Liberal Leader, who insiders say wants an election, did not look like a happy man as he emerged from the House of Commons lobby, hand-in-hand with his wife, Janine Krieber, and as per the strategy told reporters that, although he didn't like the budget, the Liberals would allow it to pass.

The fact that his wife was there supporting him shows how difficult this has been.

His decision yesterday was the result of a long and testy meeting Monday morning with his key MPs and senators.

[...]

...[Ignatieff] was shot down, most significantly by national campaign co-chair David Smith, a veteran organizer and senator from Ontario. Mr. Smith said simply that the party wasn't ready to mount a national campaign, one insider said.

Others argued that they should not acquiesce to Mr. Harper by triggering an election that he seems to want; the election should be called on their terms and timing.

"It's a mess," said one MP about the state of play in the caucus over triggering the government's defeat. Some MPs believe that if the campaign team is not ready, after being put on notice as far back as the fall, then the leader should fire them all.

All that talk about the inevitable spring election seems like a distant memory now, doesn't it?

Damian P.

Posted by damian at February 27, 2008 07:34 AM