I see Danny is calling Harper "small" - I've seen them standing side by side - I think Danny is suffering delusions of grandeur...
Posted at 2007-10-11 09:21:56 [PermaLink]The big difference is the difference between NS and NL when it comes to petroleum revenue and Equalization.
NL will stop qualifying for Equalization within two years and as such the value of the 2005 agreements was limited and known to be limited at the time the agreement was reached.
For Nova Scotia, there is the potential here for larger equalization offsets than if they had simply opted into O'Brien and stayed there.
As I've noted before, the Harper election promise is politically unattainable therefore it makes no sense to continue to row over it.
The connection between the announcement timing and the NL election is specious at best. This announcement seems to have been aimed at boosting potential federal Conservative votes in a pending federal election.
Greedy Easterners are entitled to their entitlements - that's how it looks.
Posted at 2007-10-11 13:07:05 [PermaLink]"But what has it done for anyone else?"
I hate Newfoundland more than I ever hated Quebec, and that's saying a lot.
For decades Newfies have been welcomed across Canada with open arms due to their good nature; I'm not sure that will continue to be the case in the future. Now, when I see a Newfie, I see someone who hates my guts and hates the rest of Canada, despite the fact that a perceptible percentage of my paycheck goes to pay for their roads, sewers, and hospitals. As we say here in Ontario, that's pretty shitty, man.
I don't even see whats in it for Williams. If the next election leaves a Harper minority then its status quo, if its a Harper majority, then it'll be 'talk to the hand' and Williams (and NL) will be ignored, if its a Liberal majority, the Liberals don't need NL and need to start bribing Quebec back into the Liberal fold. Only if its a Liberal minority gov't and NL MPs hold a balance of power does Williams strategy make sense, then its a repeat of the conditions that forced Martin to kowtow to NS & NL. But that seems to be a large bet on awfully long odds for just a perfect congruence of affairs for a relatively small improvement to the deal and for probably a relatively short time. This has always seemed to me more a dick measuring contest between Williams and Harper, and Williams has roused NL nationalism to try and get Harper to back down.
Posted at 2007-10-11 15:52:56 [PermaLink]"Williams's bluster gained him 43 seats in an election he would have easily won anyway. But what has it done for anyone else?"
You just don't know what "we" are fighting for. You don't believe in what "we" are fighting for. You don't love what "we" are fighting for.
Whatever that is.
Harper made an error by breaching the 2005 Accords in the budget. Now that Harper has the benefit of a strong dollar and economy (thanks to the price of oil), he is within a majority if he can secure a decent position in the Maritimes. Plainly this is why he has backtracked and struck a deal with Nova Scotia. Harper needs Newfoundland to get a majority (based on current polls) and Williams knows this. Williams will hardly sell out for materially less than the province's entitlement under the 2005 Accord. The NL government recently issued an energy plan, a central feature of which is determination not to sell out the province as under the Quebec deal concerning Churchill Falls, under which Quebec gets 95% of the economic benefit of production from Churchill Falls. Williams is hardly going to accept the NS deal in the face of his new Energy Plan.
Posted at 2007-10-15 04:16:57 [PermaLink]