I find the idea that Obama represents generational change quite strange seeing as his ideas are by far the most old fashioned of any major candidate. Obama's policy views seem to resemble those of Jimmy Carter almost perfectly.
Posted at 2008-01-04 06:33:58 [PermaLink]"Huckabee vs. Obama? I'll take the Senator from Illinois, and I bet many conservatives - even registered Republicans - feel the same way."
I'm a registered Republican and can see myself making that choice. Both Huckabee and Paul have qualities that fit my notion of "conservative": Huckabee's idea of religion as something that makes you better, not angrier, and Paul's small government sensibility. But one is a dimwit and the other caters to crazies, which takes both off the table for me.
Obama reminds me of Bill Clinton. He's really smart (not as smart as Clinton) and far too ambitious to do anything extreme. And as much as code words about "healing" and whatnot annoy me, there is some truth to it. I can live with him, although I'd prefer Hillary. I'd go with Huckabee over Edwards, though.
"Young voters and independents flocked to the Illinois senator. Media entrance polls showed that Obama defeated Clinton by better than 5 to 1 among voters under age 30, and such voters made up almost as large a share of the caucus electorate as voters over 65, a strongly pro-Clinton group. Among independents, Obama beat Clinton by better than 2 to 1."
Behold the power of Oprah. That woman's starting to scare me.
"Dionne says McCain is the only GOP candidate with any kind of appeal outside the party."
Yeah, but how much appeal does he have *within* the party?
It's Iowa, folks, the state whose caucuses gave us Presidents Harkin, Gephardt, Muskie, and Dean. Starting in New Hampshire, Obama and Huckabee have serious uphill battles.
My money is still on Clinton, and either Romney or McCain, although I'd prefer Thompson.
On another note, Hillary's negatives are well known, but the press has been afraid to be critical of Obama, which means the public has not yet had the opportunity to digest serious criticism of him.
"how much appeal does [McCain] have *within* the party?"
A lot. He was the only serious challenger to Bush back in 2000. I would have supported him but for his stand on so-called campaign finance reform. Bush signed McCain-Feingold when he took office, so it's not as though Bush turned out to be a champion of the First Amendment, either. And no one, on either side of the aisle, has been better on Iraq and Afghanistan than McCain.
Actually, Ron Paul beat Captain 9/11 by seven points. Paul got 10%. Big John McCain, who not only spent no time or money in Iowa AND said that he'd shitcan their favorite subsidy, beat Rudy by over three to one.
Posted at 2008-01-04 09:59:39 [PermaLink]With all the predictions of Democrat victory by Obama or Clinton, can any one say which states that Kerry didn't win in 2004 are likely to go blue in 2008? I see both Dems piling on supermajorities in NY, CA, IL etc but these states are already blue. The "key states" from the last two elections (FL and OH respectively) look to stay red, especially FL.
So which 2004 red states are likely to go blue in 2008 to give the Dem ticket the EC votes they need to win the White House? (and barring any Republican takeaways such as NH, NM and possibly MN)
I can think of several possibilities. Ohio is one. Even my home state of Virginia could go blue.
Posted at 2008-01-04 13:09:16 [PermaLink]I'm in accord entirely with Bruce' analysis. I, too, would rather Thompson win.
Here's to hope that we're wrong: that Clinton is done, that the fork stays dry. I'll be doing all I can to support Conservatism here in Ohio. Better a race of issues between a true and open liberal such as Obama and a proven, core conservative such as Fred.
The LAST thing we need is another Clinton or Bush.
Thanks Bruce.
If only VA flips, it's not enough R- 273, D - 264. Guiliani or McCain win.
If OH flips, it's a different story: R- 266, D- 271.
If both flip, its a convincing Dem victory: D - 284, R - 240.
Personally, I don't see VA flipping, especially with McCain as GOP candidate.
In that case, the EC math works for the Dems only if they manage to flip OH and no other states flip from blue to red.
Either Guiliani or McCain could win states like MN and WS which are border-line blue, which would mitiage the loss of OH. (OH = 20; MN = 9, WIS = 10, result: R - 285 D - 252). I am thinking there could be a surprise, such as PN going red (21 EC votes).
Funny, just today I read a post at the Western Standard by somebody who actually hates Obama. No, it wasn't me. I make it a point not to cultivate strong feelings of any kind towards the images on my television.
Posted at 2008-01-07 12:26:26 [PermaLink]