Don't get me started on polls that talk about "jumps" or "surges" that are well within the margin of error. The dumbest political commentary these days is by pollsters.
That being said, a Tory minority looks most likely, although I haven't of course done a riding by riding study.
An increased minority, though? Maybe not so much.
Incidentally, "haters" is a bit much. Not an emotion I carry around.
Posted at 2008-10-11 08:55:40 [PermaLink]The wild card in this election is the huge jump in support for the Greens, and it's an entirely negative development for the Liberals and the NDP. Several polls have the Green Party consistently in the double digits. Have a look at the tracking graph on the right of The Star's election main page.
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The Greens are still at 12% as of yesterday. Now, compare current Green support to the level the party was polling at during the 2006 campaign.
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The Greens were usually polling at 4-6%, and that's where they were at on election day in 2006 as well.
The increase in Green support could still give the Conservatives a majority, by turning narrow Conservative defeats into narrow Conservative wins in some hotly contested ridings. That's why you've got panic strcken Green candidates (yes, candidates) now pleading with their supporters to not vote for them, but rather throw their support behind the Liberal candidate in their ridings.
The most important number, with regard to the prospects for a Conservative majority, is the size of the gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals. As of today, that number looks to be on the increase again:
"The latest Canadian Press Harris-Decima poll gave Stephen Harper's Tories 35 per cent support across the country, followed by the Liberals at 25 per cent and the NDP at 18 per cent.
The Green party was at 11 per cent and the Bloc Quebecois at nine per cent."
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The Liberals have virtually no chance of winning this election. The best they can hope for is to contain the size of the Conservative win.
I suspect the surge in Green support is from progressive types who can't stomach voting for the Liberals again. To give an anecdotal example, a friend of mine who is a staunch Liberal supporter told me he voted Green one year in protest when his usual party of choice did something to upset him.
Posted at 2008-10-12 07:15:22 [PermaLink]Another two and half to "four years" of this fiddle- diddling minority, no thanks.
The Liberals being led by Dion and their "Green Shift" taxes are such a bunch of incompetent's, if Harper can't get a majority against these bums what does that tell Conservative supporters?
Where's Joe Clarke when we need him?