I eagerly await the crash of the truck and SUV market... in the next year or so I plan to buy my first truck - not because I want to drive a gas-guzzling pig, but because I plan to use it. If it is on super-markdown discount because nobody is buying them anymore, so much the better!
Posted at 2005-09-28 12:22:56 [PermaLink]SUV owners are being doubly hit - at the gas pumps and in resale value. I recently read in one of the auto blogs that the resale value (or trade in value) of SUV's has plummeted.
Posted at 2005-09-28 12:24:26 [PermaLink]I'm with Shane on this one. The precipitous drop in the market, especially the used car market, isn't fully justified by the increase in gasoline prices. For those so inclined, now is a good time to buy an SUV.
Posted at 2005-09-28 13:27:52 [PermaLink]What is totally ignored in the Canadian context is that very few large SUVS (e.g. Ford Expedition, Jeep Grand Cherokee) are sold here. Most SUVs sold in Canada are mid-size (e.g. Ford Explorer, Honda Pilot) and small (Toyota RAV4, Honda CRV, Ford Escape)--in fact I imagine the small ones have larger sales. Price is the main factor, Canadians being poorer than Americans (this is also shown by the much higher percentage of compact cars--Corolla, Civic, Mazda 3, Focus--sold in Canada compared to the States).
And what is not generally known is that mid-sized SUVs are essentially the same size and get the same gas mileage as so-called minivans (e.g. Dodge Caravan, Honda Odyssey). Small SUVs are more fuel efficient.
Yet the media and anti-motor vehicle interest groups in Canada constantly rail against SUVs as works of the devil--or at least the evil Yankees--and seem to love minivans.
Most people here simple do not know anything technical and do not make simple effort to inform themselves, e.g. getting a copy of "Consumer Reports" (not a pro-industry publication) annual auto issue.
Mark
Ottawa
The happy idea that a mid-sized SUV and a mini van are equivilant is delightful. Neither are needed, both could be done without for most urban and suburban families. Equally amusing is the fact the now very dated looking PT Cruiser - what were they thinking - is actually classed as a light truck.
As fuel prices rise the demand for small, efficient cars will rise and the entire mini-van/SUV culture will be re-examined. Do you really need to drive forty or fifty miles a day to drop off and pick up your kids? Does it make sense to have large schools ten miles apart? Are shopping malls the answer? If so, what is the question.
Jay Currie: Quite so. But why do not the media and others take note of the evils of the minivan? Could it be that they are associated with "soccer moms" while SUVs are linked to hormonally-challenged males?
The sad thing about all this is that Canadians simply parrot what is said in the US without any knowledge of what the situation here is.
So much for our intellectual independence, or even respectability.
For figures see:
Canada
[External Link]
US
[External Link]
Mark
Ottawa
To use economic terminology, short-term supply and demand for oil are price inelastic, which means small changes in either supply or demand will result in large changes in price. There are a number of factors that have led to the recent upswing in price - political instability in the Middles East, Hurricanes in the Caribbean, greater than expected demand from China. In the U.S., a shortage of refining capacity.
The long-term price trend for oil, until recently, was downward. The Chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates notes that this is the fifth time "that the world has 'run out of oil.'" In a report released in CERA observes:
“Despite current fears that oil will soon ‘run out,’ global oil production capacity is actually set to increase dramatically over the rest of this decade… As a result, supply could exceed demand by as much as 6 to 7.5 million barrels per day (mbd) later in the decade, a marked contrast to the razor-sharp balance between strong demand growth and tight supply that is currently reflected in high oil prices hovering around $60 a barrel.”
[External Link]
The SUV may yet make a comeback.
Bruce Rheinstein: But what size SUV (read my posts, please)? And what of the devil minivan?
Mark
Ottawa
A man’s choice of wheels says a lot about his values, taste, and social class. It is not, however, a moral choice. Driving a roller skate is no more or less moral than driving a land yacht.
We’ve been through this cycle before; a lengthy period of cheap gas is followed by a period of tight supply. Demand changes to reflect the greater cost of fuel, and people buy smaller, more fuel-efficient cars.
Cars and SUVs in Canada tend to be smaller than in the U.S., because Canadians are generally less well off, but the principle is the same. When gas is dear, people opt for more fuel-efficient cars. When gas is cheap, consumer choice reflects that reality.
The minivan came into being as an unintended consequence of the U.S. Federal
government attempting to legislate morality in the form of Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards that virtually wiped out station wagons and other large cars. Minivans, which drive like cars and have plenty of room, were classified as trucks and hence exempt from CAFE. Large SUVs are a later variation on the theme.
When the price of gas goes down consumers will opt for bigger vehicles again.
S'funny you know; all this whining and sanctimonious preaching from the smaller is better crowd but when it comes time for the school trips, sports competitions, apartment moves, etc. they're just pleased as shit to have the van owners do the heavy lifting. I've been a contractor and van owner for at least 30 years and I wish just once, some organization, who was thrilled to have me 'volunteer' to drive, had the courtesy to offer to pay for my gas.
Posted at 2005-09-29 00:40:53 [PermaLink]"Yet the media and anti-motor vehicle interest groups in Canada constantly rail against SUVs as works of the devil--or at least the evil Yankees--and seem to love minivans.
Most people here simple do not know anything technical...."
The difference between a minivan and an SUV is the way that rear doors open and several hundred extra pounds of drivetrain. Its the stupid wastefulness of this that many people, including myself, see as the "evil" of SUVs. Granted there are people who do use the offroad capabilities provided by the drivetrain, but most don't. I see SUV's as something that you can choose to buy if you don't want the "indignity" of driving the minivan that you might actually need.
As an exercise in judging a man's self confidence, next time you see a guy driving an SUV to the grocery store tell him he's driving the meanest looking minivan you've ever seen. Watch them sputter and fume about how they aren't driving a minivan and ask yourself where else you see that level of frantic denial. It's on par with "I'm not gay!". One guy wanted to punch me for it, which only made me and my sister laugh harder.
If you want an SUV buy one, nobody is going to stop you. But if you aren't going offroad, you're a fool and gas prices will soon part you from your money. Bruce's "downward trend" refers to the fact that oil prices driven to the moon by events in the 70's have been slowly coming down. His 30ish year "longterm trend" does not apply at all if you look at the last 60 years where you can clearly see a base price for oil and spikes caused by wars, embargoes, and uncertainty. [External Link]
Unless you think that the middle east is on the verge of stability, then go buy yourself a Hummer.
Bruce:
The station wagon wasn’t wiped out by CAFÉ standards, the minivan is just more practical (whether you actually need the space is another matter). Ford always made a station wagon (we owned a Sable wagon) but the market preferred a minivan.
Automobiles are smaller on average in Canada but this is also partly due to considerably higher fuel prices in Canada relative to the U.S.
Dara:
I heard a discussion about SUV’s several years ago. Chrysler refused to honour someone’s warranty on their Jeep Grand Cherokee because - well, they had the nerve to take it off road.
"next time you see a guy driving an SUV to the grocery store tell him he's driving the meanest looking minivan you've ever seen."
Tall-weed syndrome applied to motor vehicles. Do you subject total strangers driving sports cars, performance cars and full-size cars to public disapprobation, too? Or is it just SUV drivers you need to humiliate?
"The first round of CAFE regulations in the 1970s did not intend to eliminate the family station wagon…but did so. Ironically SUVs and minivans became the substitutes for the family station wagon as consumers shunned the smaller, downsized cars that resulted from fuel economy mandates." -- Sport Utility Vehicle Owners of America, April 26, 2004
[External Link]
By the way, "family station wagon" generally means a full-size car. The Sable is mid-size.
The American auto manufacturers clearly made a large bet on the SUV market...which was involved making a bet that oil prices were'nt going to go up by any huge amount. A prudent thing to have done would be to have hedged the bet, at least partly, by taking a long position in oil-related stocks.
Think any of them did?
photoncourier.blogspot.com
Bruce:
If the the Sable/Taurus is considered mid-size, I shudder at the thought of a full size wagon. We used to refer the Sable as the "beluga". My guess is that as automobile designs became more space efficient in the mid '80's with front wheel drive, no frame on body construction, etc. the need for what had been considered a full size car disappeared. Anyone wanting that much space would be better served by a minvan which has more verstility and better access.
It's pretty well documented that North American consumers have shunned station wagons for whatever reason. Just look at how poorly hatchbacks do relative to their sedan derivatives.
Dara: The drivetrain is not what's most useful offroad - all-wheel-drive is very useful on a road, if it's wet or icy or has gravel on it.
The off-roadness comes from the suspension. (You'll want to note the Subaru cars, all of which are AWD, and very few of which are anything like off-road capable. Even their rally-car WRX STi is only really meant for dirt roads, not off-roading.)
And, well, having driven a minivan now and then, I think AWD is a great idea on one, even if it adds a few hundred evil, nasty pounds of weight and makes baby Gaia cry a little. (And, really, if we want to talk weight reduction, let's remove all those extra airbags people are piling on these days. That'll also make cars a lot cheaper, so we get a double win.)
Jay: Does anyone really "need" to drive at all? Couldn't they just be assigned a hovel by an assigned workplace by the State, and made to walk to it? Think of all the problems that would solve, by eliminating something people don't really "need"!
(Shopping malls are the answer to "how do I fulfill various desires for goods in a maximally efficient time and space area", by the way. Since you asked.)
Sigivald:
Re: "The off-roadness comes from the suspension"
Partly true and also ground clearence and heavy duty components. When I worked as a geologist many years ago the vehicle of choice was a pickup truck - 2 wheel drive for summer use. The old adage was - a 4 wheel drive will just get you stuck that much further from help.
Sports cars are more "evil" than any SUV. Two-seaters with lousy gas mileage, horrible on ice, two or three hundred horsepower, 250 kmph for 110 kmph roads, can't see above the bumper of the vehicle ahead of you.
AND, speed kills. Right?
It's just stupid wastefulness.
So is owning a large house that uses more energy to heat and cool. Stupid and evil.
Anyways, back to reality, SUVs are here to stay. There are many different styles and sizes to meet everyone's needs (whether or not you agree with those needs), and manufacturers are continually providing better fuel efficiency in ALL of their vehicles (there are hybrid and diesel SUVs).
It's a little silly to scoff at SUV owners without even knowing if they take them offroad, or have 7 kids, or tow a trailer or boat. My neighbour has an SUV for all those reasons. I'd bet they even get better gas mileage per person than 95% of Canadians, especially single people in cities who could get by using public transportation but opt for their own car.
And heaven help anyone who buys an SUV because they like the look of it. Who in their right mind would choose ANY manufactured product for that reason?
Dara: Mid-size SUVs weigh just about the same as minivans and get about the same mileage. AWD is very useful in the winter (as has been pointed out).
Look up the figures:
[External Link]
And small SUVS--very popular in Canada--get better mileage than minivans.
I still await media condemnation of gas-guzzing minivans.
Next time I see a woman in a minivan I must ask her where her balls (soccer that is) are.
Mark
Ottawa
Sigivald, four wheel drive in an SUV does nothing on road but allow them to reach rollover speed faster in poor road conditions. Four wheel drive offers no advantage in handling or braking, and the extra few hundred pounds of weight hurts both of those. The "off-road" suspension also contributes to the general instability and probably helps add a couple more crosswalk widths to the stopping distances on city streets.
Bruce, if you decide to use an SUV as a grocery getter that's your choice. If I choose to make fun of you for it, that's mine. I have no beef with sports cars, but if I knew any sports car owners who installed a 700 pound ballast in their trunk and transported it everywhere they went, I'd probably make fun of their stupidity as well. One of my good friends drives a new Corvette with a 6L engine. He gets decent mileage when he drives it normally. When he pushes it, he gets SUV mileage, which is a small price for the grin.
jhuck, I know SUV's are here to stay. So are warning labels to tell you not to stick your head into a trash compactor and hit the switch. If your neighbour uses his SUV for towing and offroading then he made the right decision and I don't fault him for it. Maybe my perspective is different as I drive through Toronto every day and see countless SUVs idling along the Gardiner, lugging hundreds of thousands of pounds of drivetrain into and then out of the city every day. It just seems to me that the average needs of an SUV buyer are somewhere between "How can I look taller" and "Please not a minivan honey".
In the meantime, I'm stuck paying ridiculous amounts for gasoline (as compared to production costs) because of the high demand which has strained North American supply. I'm stuck paying for road maintenance to accomodate the army of single occupant suburban tanks that roll into my city daily. Hopefully I'll never be stuck between a wall and a 5000lb truck whose driver thought that 4WD made it easy to drive in the snow just because he could accelerate better.
Dara, downshifting a 4WD on snow or ice slows all 4 wheels at the same time which can help a little, if drivers do it smoothly.
Also, I went from a small 4x4 Ranger to a Subaru so I know that sitting higher from the ground helped me see above and ahead of the vehicles in front of me, which meant I could see the brake lights two or three cars ahead. That's one thing I miss.
There are some bad aspects to SUVs and there are some good ones, just like every vehicle.
I still think that sports cars are worse than SUVs (in respect to ego, efficiency, danger, etc), although I'd still love a Jaguar XKR.
"If the the Sable/Taurus is considered mid-size, I shudder at the thought of a full size wagon."
The last full-size station wagon was the 1996 Chevrolet Caprice/Buick Roadmaster.
[External Link]
They're great cars, but GM had to sell a lot of roller skates for every one of these to meet CAFE standards, and the price reflected that reality.
The Taurus/Sable is a nice car, but it's considerably smaller.
I should mention that the Chrysler, which used to make some nice full-size station wagons, classifies the Dodge Magnum wagon as full-size, although it has nowhere near the size or capacity of the older wagons.
Posted at 2005-09-29 20:25:30 [PermaLink]nice to see the vicious jealousies of the left here.
if you were actually secure, you wouldn't care what anyone else drove.
overcompensation jokes are for people who have somethign to compensate for. generally this is a lack of economic, professional, and sexual success, as well as the fact that what these people value isn't valued by other people.
sometime soon though, these people will be dealt with as they would deal with others, and they will complain about it. boo hoo, you poor little commies.
Bruce:
Re: "The Taurus/Sable is a nice car"
After three blown head gaskets, I repectfully disagree. That's why my wife now drives a Mazda3. The size adjustment wasn't all that bad.
My Taurus was a nice care, but after replacing a blown transmission and having an engine seize, following a sudden loss of coolant on the highway with no warning on the temperature guage, I bought a Honda Accord. The mechanic bought my Taurus, and I was more than happy to be rid of it.
Posted at 2005-09-30 15:28:24 [PermaLink]I don't believe that Americans have "shunned wagons for whatever reason," it's just that comfortable ones aren't available at an affordable price. I have a Honda Odyssey and I like it, but I would have happily bought a station wagon if I could have found one that 1) had a comfortable back seat for tall adolescents to sit in and 2) cost less than 40K (USD). When we went for test drives, my children were practically tucking their knees under their chins (we looked at Subaru and Volkswagen; Audi and Volvo are too expensive).
Posted at 2005-10-03 13:24:21 [PermaLink]reminds me a lot of my ford expedition. been a reliable car since i had it. and no major problems occured except a few replacements.
Posted at 2005-10-07 02:27:58 [PermaLink]