Damian,
Which of the 4 P.E.I. seats do you see going Conservative, and why only one? You must know something that we don't know here on The Island.
Thanks.
Dumb Question from a guy living in the States: What's the most likely scenario for a coalition government? A Conservative/Bloc government? A Conservative/Liberal government?
Posted at 2006-01-22 11:58:47 [PermaLink]What about Yvon Godin from Acadie-Bathurst?
Why do you think he is going to lose his seat?
I really hope you're right on this election, but I have my own doubts as there are a few days left to election time and the Libs will pull some stunts.
I mainly hope Svend-over doesn't return to Parliament.
Lets aim higher.
159 Conservatives
62 Liberals
56 BQ
31 NDP
Protagonist,
Harper has said he is not forming a coalition or some "MOU". He will govern issue by issue looking for a supporter. If he has a strong minority he will just need one party.
Damian,
I am a little more upbeat about the Conservatives chances in Quebec (maybe up to 10 seats), less in Ontario (we Ontarians always change our minds in the booth and go for "stability"...only 20 Conservatives) and definitely not optimistic about PEI...there is no way the Islanders will bite the hand that has been feeding them for generations (Conservatives: 0 in PEI). So all in all, I see the Conservatives closer to 130, unfortunately.
I am not sure how Harper plans to govern...the Libecrooks will never vote to support the government, the Traitorbloc will be pissed that the Conservatives singlehandedly stopped them from breaking through the 50% popular vote and the neo-commies will not support "Bush-light".
I think we will be back at the polls within 12 months.
I'd like to see Malpeque and Charlottetown turn blue on Monday in PEI. Egmont is a very long shot, but ya never know. They were short by a large percentage last time, but only 3500 to 4500 votes so a good GOTV could do the trick.
Posted at 2006-01-22 12:40:59 [PermaLink]It pains me to say this but I think your Sask numbers are wrong. CPC 11, NDP 2, Liars 1. Ralph is still safe. I hope I am wrong.
Posted at 2006-01-22 12:45:24 [PermaLink]What about the one Independent candidate in Quebec, the radio host, is he not favored to win his riding?
Posted at 2006-01-22 12:46:36 [PermaLink]"Which of the 4 P.E.I. seats do you see going Conservative, and why only one?"
PEI has been 100% Liberal since 1988, but the Election Prediction Project had Charlottetown listed as "too close to call" for much of the campaign. They've since given it to the Liberals, but I still think Islanders will send at least one Tory to Ottawa, if that's the way it looks like things are going.
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Information deprived Westerners need your help. As election results come in for Atlantica Canada, please post.
The site ProAlberta.com has been set up for use by anyone who wants to disobey the ridiculous law that prevents people from the west to get timely and accurate information - the site doesn't not require people to sign up and doesn't not record IP address for add security. The site is also not hosted in Canada.
Interesting to see all my fellow islanders, or at least those who seem in touch with it, come out of the woodwork for the election. Politics always seem like such a big thing here on PEI, maybe because of our "overrepresentation" in the House. It would be interesting to see Deblois win the seat in Charlottetown. But I would be absolutely shocked if it happened. I'd put money on Murphy retaining his seat; he's fairly popular, in spite of losing some support for voting in favour of gay marriage. I actually talked to a friend who volunteers for Deblois' campaign who the Conservatives will pick up two seats on PEI, but I'm skeptical.
Although I'll be voting NDP tomorrow, I will be quite happy with a conservative minority government tomorrow night. Definately time for the Liberals to go, and I'm no big fan of Paul Martin's. Theres also a general attitude around that the conservatives aren't as "scary" this time around. I feel this way as do a lot of people I know, and so I dont think you will see the same level of NDP voters jump ship over to the Liberals on election day, like happened last time.
Just for fun:
Con - 135
Lib - 96
NDP - 26
Bloc - 51
AltaInd; forgive my ignorance, but I thought last time around that law was not in force? Seems to me they were making a big deal about how people out west for the first time would know how the votes in the east went before the polls closed. Or did I just make all that up?
Posted at 2006-01-22 17:18:50 [PermaLink]Followup:
(1) Any chance of minority MPs get any cabinet seats?
(2) Another stupid question: Any chance the liberals/NPDs/Bloc getting together to form a government? (I guess the collapse of the last government answers that question.)
I really don't see how you can stably govern issue by issue like that in a parliamentary system, unless, like someone said, you have another election in a year or so. But I may be abstracting too much from what I know about British Parliament.
Protagonist:
1) No chance of other parties getting cabinet seats if Conservatives win a minority government. This would pretty much be true in any minority government case (i.e. parties other than winning party not included in cabinet), except in the case of a formal coalition between 2 or more parties.
2) Also no chance that I can see of a Liberal/NDP/Bloc coalition. No one wants to be seen to have a formal coalition with a party whose sole intent is to pull Quebec out of Canada... that's political suicide here. And the way that the Liberals and NDP have attacked each other in the campaign, I'd have a hard time believing those two parties could co-exist in a coalition.
I think in this case if the Conservatives win a minority government, they can govern issue by issue and make it work for a relatively long time (i.e. 2-plus years). There is common ground to be had with the NDP on accountability and cleaning up government, consensus can be found for some of their other main planks in the platform (cutting GST, reform laws on crime, etc.), and so on.
2 other things to consider:
a) There is certain to be election fatigue... if the opposition parties risk bringing the government down within 6 to even 18 months, I think many Canadians will be angered by this and will punish the opposition parties even further for doing this instead of trying to deal with the issues Canada faces.
b) The Liberals are likely to want to remove Paul Martin, since his leadership of the party has been abysmal. In addition to a new leader, however, a lot of other things need to be done (i.e. reforming the party's culture to it's past glories instead of it's corruption-laden present, paying off the probably sizeable debts the party faces, etc.), so it's going to need time to deal with these things... at least 2 years I would think, if not more.
Of course, this is just my best guess, I could be wrong.
5 Tory seats in Quebec? It'll never happen. MAYBE one. Most likely none. I know the numbers are up but the vote distribution just doesn't spell your scenario. That's my prediction, anyway.
Posted at 2006-01-22 20:41:01 [PermaLink]Thanks for your reply, Damian.
Re P.E.I.: I would watch what happens in Cardigan. I'm preparing to be surprised tonight, but the biggest surprise of all to me would be if Islanders didn't show some common sense and send Harper someone he can work with.
Protagonist:
Regarding a coalition of several minority parties to form a government - I believe the way the system works the purported coalition would have to ask the Goveror General to be able to form the government. I read something in one of the papers recently about this and the author stated it had been tried many years ago but the Governor General refused and ordered the majority party to form a government and try to make it work. Maybe someone here could flesh this out.
OTH - in 1985 in Ontario, the Conservatives won a plurality of seats but not a majority. The Liberals entered into a formal agreement with the NDP and managed to form a government. I assume they needed the permission of the Lieutenant Governor but those events occured over twenty years ago.
Here is a CBC archive video clip about the 1985 Ontario election.
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OLL; a court has reimposed the ban leaving us in the dark. Help us please.
Posted at 2006-01-23 11:54:11 [PermaLink]John B:
It's on the Governor-General to find a ministry, not on political parties to apply for the job. This may serve as a flowsheet:
1. The existing ministry, unless decisively defeated, has an option of staying and trying to pass a speech and a budget. If they are then defeated, the opposition will normally get a chance to govern, but could decline the invitation, which would probably force the GG to dissolve. (Obvious example: Ontario, 1985 -- Miller ministry defeated on the Speech; Lt-Gov Aird received Miller's resignation and appointed Peterson ministry, which governed with the support of the NDP. He appointed them; they didn't have to ask.)
2. If the government doesn't stay on, the party with the largest number of seats will normally be called to form a ministry. Normal practice has been to form a minority government, rather than a formal coalition. (Obvious examples: Clark in 1979; Pearson in 1963; Diefenbaker in 1957.)
3. If they can't, it's conceivable (in a very fragmented Parliament, which we won't get this time) that a third party might try to govern in informal coalition with others.