Hopefully it's Welcome Back to the Anglosphere!
Posted at 2006-01-23 20:49:31 [PermaLink]The disappointment of the night so far is the strength of the Liberals in Ontario, still. After the strong campaign the CPC ran, the politics of fear must have sway still. I guess if you yell abortion enough times in Ontario you gain votes?
Posted at 2006-01-23 20:49:42 [PermaLink]As a long time lurker I have to thank you for your excellent coverage of the events leading up to the election. As you were saying about the Atlantic ridings I think the CTV pundits were right on saying that the candidate mattered more than the party as opposed to the rest country. I have to say I'm dismayed at the large showing of support for the Liberals and was hoping through some miracle we’d have a Conservative government (minority or majority) with an NDP opposition to keep the extreme social conservatives in line. While I don’t agree with most of the NDP policy they would be a better opposition in my opinion. The election of so many Liberal MPs leaves me wondering what the rest of Canada was thinking when they voted for them. While the face of the party has changed from the Chretien years it seems that behind the scenes the party remained the same and ended in the usual fearmongering tactics that had nothing to do with campaign issues. Anyway thanks again and wish you continued success with your blogging and hopefully I’ll continue to post.
-Rob
Sigh.
Sure, winning's better than losing but winning like this is disappointing nonetheless. I'm really surprised that the Liberals held on to so many seats -- disgusted, really -- and it just goes to show that the predictions that their shameful campaign of hysteria no longer had any life in it were wrong. This is nothing for them to be proud of, however. All they've done is reveal that their natural constituency is prone to irrational thought.
As a side note, I presume that the same people who know what they really mean by "progressive" are the same people who actually know what "neoconservative" means.
We have the change we wanted. LET US CHEER FOR IT, BELIEVE YOU ME! As a Torontonian, as an Ontarian, I'm disappointed of how my local fellows stuck with an ethically bankrupt party. Said at least. I have been reluctant to the over-optimistic predictions for an Ontario conservative sweep and I was right in my fears. I woke up this morning very, very worried at the prospect of a last minute liberal comeback.
I'm actually happy we won, period. You should have listened to the last few days' coverage of the elections on the local airwaves here. Anti-conservative hysteria at its best.
GOOD LUCK, STEVE. GOOD LUCK TO THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY! God, I really am so so happy!
I don't want to rain on the parade - I voted Tory, too, and would have liked to see Ontario in particular do the same - but a govt has not been formed and will require an alliance of two or three parties.
The Belinda business made it clear just what the Libs can/will do in backroom deals in order to stay in power. Call me paranoid, but this is not over yet.
Good for you Canada. You'll like having a Conservative government. You get to stay out all night drinking blood, and if you say you're a Conservative at the movies you'll get a free small soda...
Posted at 2006-01-23 21:31:05 [PermaLink]The Liberal Party must be in full celebration mode across Ontario anyway. The spectre of the possiblity of the Liberal/NDP coalition is there... does smiling Jack! have the support of his party to deny the CPC governing?
Posted at 2006-01-23 21:36:58 [PermaLink]The final numbers from SES are scary close to what Elections Canada has right now for popular vote. Not sure about regionals.
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Yes, it's well deserved. You and I both knew that Fabian would get elected in Avalon - his popularity there over the crab dispute simply coasted him to victory. In the end, Danny Williams really did him a favour by turfing him from the provincial Caucus. I'm not surprised that the rest of NL stayed red - their father's father's father voted liberal, so they did too. No surprise there. Overall, we have formed the government, so I'm pleased.
Posted at 2006-01-23 21:44:21 [PermaLink]Dwayne,
Libs + NDP = still a minority.
But Libs + BQ = oh-so-close; let's bribe someone to cross over!
Ras, I am not sure that the Liberals would go that far, and I don't think that the CPC will either. The Block is such an enigma. A useless party that no one really wants to play with, and yet they may have the balance if someone is willing to approach them.
For me, they are mainly socialist based, so the probablity of supporting the CPC is slim, though the promise of a less central government is tempting for the Block.
As a Torontonian. all I can do is look around as I walk the streets and think....What , are you really a Socialist?? What part of Quebec corruption are you most comfy with? I can comfort these souls by reassuring them Nanny will be back. In the mean time, I ought to think of moving to a Red State for the sake of my family. . If you have to water down a right wing party this much just to get a minority that is not in the drivers seat, things don't portend well for solving the issues that Canada faces. Maybe Harper will start the ship turning slowly. I just hope it doesn't stop till it is heading the way he thought was right several years ago.
Posted at 2006-01-23 22:05:53 [PermaLink]Bombshell... he will step aside. Will the eggman assimilate the Liberals?
Posted at 2006-01-23 22:14:55 [PermaLink]Paul Martion has declared he's stepping down! The best news of this election hopefully they sell destruct in the leadership race. I wonder if Belinda Stronach is going to run for leadershgip and switch parties after she loses again?
Posted at 2006-01-23 22:16:21 [PermaLink]Why were all the polls (except SES) wrong again?
Mark
Ottawa
Well this was close too my prediction of 130 seats so I'm not too disappointed...
A few comments......I am absolutely overjoyed that that dumb twat from Edmonton Center, Landslide Anne is done with.......for me, that is almost as good as seeing the PC party gain minority status........I know for you guys out east you are disappointed about Stronach winning but that doesn't come close to the anger I would have felt if Anne would have won.......great stuff....
Nice too see the Conservative breakthrough in Quebec and that could bode well for the next election.......
Again, it needs to be said that I live in the most intelligent and politically saavy province in all of Canada........a clean sweep.....Albertans do me proud again....
The Bad.......disappointed are minority wasn't bigger but not totally surprised...
The absolute depravity and stupidity of Ontarion (exempting my fellow conservatives of course) never ceases to amaze me.......one gets the feeling if the Liberals ran Hitler or Stalin, the morons in Ontario would still vote these scoundrals in!!
The maratimes........what a bunch of boneheads.....exempting you Penny of course but what the HELL......come on.......sad too see that entitlement is still alive and well out east....total bummer considering that Maratimer's are a good bunch of people but boobs whence it comes politics!!
Also, we all know we will be doing this again in a couple of years...
I suppose for the long term though at the very least we are going to be headed by minority govts.......and that is still awhole lot better then the brutal liberal regime that has ruined Canuckistan these last 40 years...
And this election will do nothing to stop separatist sentiments in Alberta nor Quebec in the long run.....it's still only a matter of time before this country completely unravels....and of course as a Albertan, that is fine with me!!!
Albertanator: Damian's not a Maritimer, he's a Newfoundlander.
Mark
Ottawa
I've been waiting a lot longer than twelve years for this. I've been waiting my whole life for a *conservative* Conservative government!
Posted at 2006-01-23 22:51:12 [PermaLink]Congratulations Canada on throwing the Liberals out! I am a little disappointed at the size of the win though - I was hoping that the Liberal support would really melt away. Perhaps 90-105 seats is just the solid Liberal core. (I suppose Toronto is like New York for us Republicans - not a very hospitable environment!)
So who do the Conservatives team up with in Parliament?
Given the political configuration, what issue(s) should Harper put on top of the agenda?
Congratulations again to all my conservative friends in Canada!
Folks,
Shag the numbers, tonight's events are seismic!
Stephen Harper is on his way to building the coalition of which Mulroney only dreamed!
Conservative westerners, new generation Quebeckers and the rising tide of Tim Hortons' customers rebelling against the skinny latte Starbucks crowd.
One word: realignment.
If the Democrats here in the US can say a victory is losing by less than they expected, this is wild success. Congratulations!
Posted at 2006-01-23 23:42:37 [PermaLink]OK, with Martin's concession I am at least willing to say that he won't try to form a coalition govt of his own ... yet!
So this is as good a time as any to say, thanks Damian, great site. It's part of the change all around us. And change is good.
I am a bit disappointed.
The wooden stake was in position but it didn't get hammered home.
Call me a pessimist but no matter how well Harper does, I see the lukewarm embrace as just a time out for the Liberals because they got caught with their fingers somewhere they shouldn't be.
Once they have had enough time alone in their room to think about what they did rong and promise that they'll be good, our friends in central and eastern Canada will put the Liberals back into power and we'll continue out toboggan ride to hell.
Congratulations! Now the hard work begins. Don't let up on the Tories to stick to their principles.
Posted at 2006-01-24 07:43:52 [PermaLink]It is interesting that the Liberals dominate in Toronto and do well in Vancouver--43.7 and 37.5 percent foreign-born population (2001 census, even higher now).
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Monteal is a special case.
What is interesting is the situation in the next three largest metropolitan areas, all close to a population of one million: Ottawa, Calgary and Edmonton. The Liberal won only two seats in Ottawa, in the urban core (the NDP won the other core seat); the Conservatives won all the suburban ridings. In Calgary and Edmonton the Conservatives won all the seats.
Surely this is an urban triumph for the Tories, but I do not think one will find any such description of the result in the media. One wonders why.
Another interesting fact: the foreign-born population of these three cities is, respectively, 17.7, 20.9, and 17.8 percent (curiously the percentage for Canada as a whole is 18.4--almost the same).
So the urban areas where the Liberals predominate are those where the foreign-born population is twice, or well over twice, the national average. Exceptionally atypical places. And Toronto and Vancouver (plus Montreal) will become only more atypical since some three-quarters of all immigrants settle in Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal.
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So in fact there are three Canadas: Toronto and Vanouver, cities vastly different in their ethnic makeup from the rest of the Rest of Canada: the (anglo) Rest of Canada, and Quebec.
This ever-increasing diifference within RoC between the two great metropolises and all its other parts cannot be a Good Thing. Amongst other things the national media in Toronto (John Ibbitson of the Globe is the supreme exemplar) are simply unaware that they live in a very odd city that has ever less in common with the country as a whole--a situation that severely distorts media attitudes and coverage.
In addition, our immigration policy promotes family re-unification of the broadest possible sort. This means multitudes more of people ill-suited on the whole to add productively to the economy (let's face it, many end up on welfare) joining their relatives in the metros each year. This will only exacerbate the division of the country and I doubt the Conservatives will have the courage in a minority parliament to do anything about it.
Mark
Ottawa
Mark:
I'm glad you commented on this issue. It's been apparent for some time that the immigrant vote (particularly recent immigrants) has been crucial to the Liberals. My riding in Toronto, which has a large Chinese minority (all of whom are recent immigrants and not long term citizens), was plastered with Liberal lawn signs. As far as I could tell, there seemed to be a good correlation between ethnicity and Liberal signs.
I want to say that I agree with Mark Collins' analysis. The Conservatives were shut out of Toronto and Vancouver because of the immigrant vote. The Portuguese immigrants in my riding vote Liberal. Voting Conservative in my area is an exercise in futility. The NDP has an outside chance of winning the seat, but the Conservatives don't have a hope here.
The Conservatives realize they have a problem and are taking steps to win over immigrants, but how can they do that without moving left? Conservatives are, or at least were, banking on the assumption that many immigrants are social conservatives hostile to gay marriage. Republicans make a similar assumption about Latinos who are also seen as socially conservative, but despite what is sometimes said, the Republicans haven't made much headway.
The Reform Party was never "anti-immigrant" as its critics claimed, but it did propose to cut immigration during periods of high unemployment. Harper's Conservatives, however, just want to make the immigration system more efficient. According to Diane Ablonczy, Conservatives support in principle an increase in immigration. They don't seem to realize that they're undercutting their own base of support.
People say Canada's economy needs more immigrants, but the Fraser Institute has produced two reports by Martin Collacott and Herbert Grubel that show that current immigration policy doesn't benefit the economy. Also, James Travers of the Toronto Star recently wrote two columns about leaked government reports showing that recent immigrants are not doing well. The documents were leaked after Joe Volpe announced plans to increase the immigration level to 300,000 a year as promised in the Liberal Red Book.
Some of us have been waiting longer than 12 years!
Posted at 2006-01-28 22:30:26 [PermaLink]