heh - Peter didn't win by a large margin last time around, but you're right - he is a very prominent cabinet minister now. And If May runs, all she would succeed in doing would be to split the vote on the left, ensuring MacKay's victory.
Posted at 2007-03-18 10:23:58 [PermaLink]Mckay got 40% of the vote in the last election. His performance has been poor and he may have difficulty holding on to that. (Maybe his dad can bail him out). If the 60% of the riding that wanted to throw Mckay out goes Green then Mckay is toast.
Posted at 2007-03-18 11:12:30 [PermaLink]AA,
You have got it wrong. The NDP is certain to get significant support, so if the 60% is split between the Greens and the NDP, the Conservatives will still come out ahead again. Elizabeth may is toast. She should have run in BC, where support for her party is the strongest.
She doesn't expect to win - she doesn't think she can win anywhere in Canada.
Only one GP candidate finished second in the last election with 12% against Myron Thompson in AB. By running in her "home" riding against a cabinet minister she will be able to say that she tried against huge odds. She'd rather that than be humiliated in a 'green' BC riding where she would probably finish a distant third.
Get rid of the $2.00 per vote per year subsidy and the GP disappears overnight. They are nothing but a bunch of professional lobbyists - paid carpetbaggers.
I think she's just trying to hit the jackpot and trying to score a public debate with MacKay which would raise her and her party's profile, which is all that she can reasonably hope for in the next election cycle. Her winning is a long shot, but Peter won't be able to lean too heavily on the environment.
One other thing to consider is that she might be betting that this isn't the last election we'll see for 5 years and is treating this as a trial run.