Yes, an interesting dilemma. I was listening to a debate on this on CFRB 1010, and also a while back on another station by a humanitarian aid worker. Both reports pretty much summed up the problem. While civilians would like nothing better than to grow a legitimate crop, the problem is that nothing affords them a prosperous living except for opium, and even that barely lets them get by. They make five times more money growing opium than wheat, especially since wheat is subsidized by other nations and thus negates any chance of trade. The fact is that opium is the only crop farmers have a chance to producing. If NATO and the UN want Afghanis to survive, they need to find a sustainable crop to grow in the country.
The anti-poppy efforts by the U.S. is a foolish waste of money, and only serves to alienate and upset the local population who are denied their only production of any value. Beyond this, of course, are the war lords who command their cultivation, and are also a problem in this country.
Yet, I would wonder if we turned to Afghanistan to produce our Poppies would the protesters change their signs to read "No Blood for opiates"?
I'd rather we bought it and burned it than allow it to go to produce heroin. If we really wanted to fight the "War on drugs" buying at a reasonable price to remove the supply would be a great start.
The key stat in the UN study is that Afghanistan is now producing 95% of the world's opium.
This blows any "legitimate use" BS right out the window. There is simply no way to "launder" those poppies short of every doctor in the world prescribing opiates for any condition more severe than a papercut.
Buying it and burning it seems like it would be an efficient and manageable war on drugs but it would create problems.
First off, junkies aren't going to stop wanting it, which means the black market price will skyrocket past what the US would tolerate paying. Then there will have to be some sort of enforcement to make sure that poppy farmers aren't selling illegally and the Taliban will offer protection and get in on the racket. Which puts everyone pretty much in the same place they are now except probably more than half of the money spent on buying poppies to burn will have gone right into the Taliban coffers.
Why not push for large scale maize production over there? I keep hearing about corn prices being pressured upwards by interest in biofuel. With the price of labour over there and the inability of a country like that to suffer the volatility of oil, it might work out well for the Afghanis down the road. You could also pick up some western investment as alternative energy is a hot market right now.
Afghani farmer; "Lessee; I make $25 an acre for corn and $250 for poppies....hmmm, this is a toughie."
Posted at 2007-08-28 09:44:14 [PermaLink]DaninVan,
You may want to throw into that equation:
"Hmm, $25/acre for corn that helicopters won't burn down (and I can also eat it), or $250/acre for poppies that may get burned down."
There is a lot more involved in the equation. But, is Afghanistan an appropriate place to grow corn (or other cereals, even)? What food crops would work there, what cash crops (legal), etc.? If 95% of opium is grown there, then there must be something advantageous for poppy growth there, since I'm sure Columbian drug lords would grow poppies in South America if they could.
I would favor a limited purchase program (sell licenses to grow poppies, etc., like hemp production) and train the farmers in agribusiness. Give assistance in other crops.
Oh, and kill the Taliban.
1/2 Can; Corn demands fertile soil, consistent moisture and warm weather. I get the impression that Afghanistan isn't terribly weather friendly to cultivated crops...too hot, too wet, too dry, too cold. Not to mention a lot of arid, rocky, infertile soil.
Apparently, from poppy crop predictions, the risks aren't deterring many farmers.
The problem with raising bulk crops like corn, wheat, whatever for export is that Afstan has no access to the sea, no large waterways, and no railroads makes export of such crops (or even biofuel derivatives) simply uncompetitive. That why such agricultural products as the Afghans have tended to export have been higher value by weight, e.g. dried fruits, nuts and opium.
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Buying and burning would make the most sense, but one would have to pay a distinct premium over the market price to ensure that one got most of the poppy crop. Hard to see western governments or the UN agreeing to that.
There is also the problem, contrary to the Senlis Council, that in the absence of a pretty firm police/judicial system (as in Turkey and India) to control production what is to stop people from simply growing more as long as there are illicit purchasers looking for product? That is also a problem with buy and burn--supply of opium looks fairly elastic and would be willing to pay for more and more crop being grown?
Mark
Ottawa
Dan,
I don't think it's an easy sell, but as Half Canadian pointed out, a bit of napalm could exert some market pressure.
Corn does grow in Afghanistan, and I'm sure that you could increase the amount of viable land by using a coarser maize variety that isn't as sensitive to weather.
Mark, I wouldn't think that shipping ears of corn would be a good use of anyone's time or money. The technology to extract ethanol from biomass is pretty simple and with a bit of help, and a good perimeter, you could set up processing stations to produce fuel grade ethanol, which is worth shipping.
Mark:
Regarding the Senlis Council's proposal: a representative was interviewed last night on CBC news. Their policy would provide a license to grow opium poppies to a village as a whole whose elders would then decide who grew how much. Their position is that the threat of a village losing its license would the encourage the village members to police the growing of this crop. No easy answers here and much the same as with illicit drugs everywhere. If there is a demand, someone will fill it if the price is high enough.
Dara: How great would be export profits shipping by truck to Pakistan (if they could use the stuff and there is certainly no market in Iran)?
Mark
Ottawa
Mark,
I thought there was a lot of reconstruction planned for Afghanistan? I'm assuming that there is a growing local market for car fuel and that the plans include giving them some means of trade. If they don't then it's a waste of time even discussing the future of Afghanistan, much less losing lives over it.
Also, at the right price, ethanol could be attractive to Iran and Pakistan. Both countries have oil reserves but neither is a particularly large producer of gasoline, they're not especially invested into refining capacity and their own markets are growing. Ethanol can be added directly to traditional gasoline so you can stretch your reserves to relieve crises or to improve mileage by improving the fuel quality.